{"id":355,"date":"2026-07-08T14:11:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T14:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanservicereview.com\/?p=355"},"modified":"2026-07-08T14:11:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T14:11:11","slug":"revisiting-which-supreme-court-cases-are-actually-the-most-important","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanservicereview.com\/?p=355","title":{"rendered":"Revisiting which Supreme Court cases are actually the most important"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><em>Please note that SCOTUS Outside Opinions constitute the views of outside contributors and do not\u00a0necessarily\u00a0reflect the opinions of SCOTUSblog or its staff.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/americanservicereview.com\/?p=353\">The Supreme Court\u2019s quiet coup<\/a><\/p>\n<p>In a previous piece for SCOTUSblog, I suggested a somewhat unconventional way to gauge which are the most important Supreme Court cases: simply count the number of amicus curiae \u2013 \u201cfriend of the court\u201d \u2013 briefs filed in each one. The logic, borrowed from economics, was that filing a brief costs time, money, and reputation, and a large number of filers in a case is therefore a credible signal that knowledgeable parties believe that case really matters. Because briefs are filed before a case is decided, this measure also sidesteps the circularity of calling a case important only after a close, ideologically contentious vote suggests that it was.<\/p>\n<p>That measure worked reasonably well, but I was candid about one weakness: it leans heavily toward civil rights and \u201cculture war\u201d cases, when plenty of other types of cases may have a profound effect on people\u2019s lives or the public discourse. Indeed, researchers have long noted that civil liberties disputes, in particular, attract a disproportionate share of amici, and a raw count inherits that bias. Here I want to propose a refinement that provides a different and arguably more revealing picture of what constitutes the most important Supreme Court cases.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Whose briefs count?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Not every amicus brief is filed simply to persuade the justices. Some are filed to be seen filing \u2013 to signal to donors, members, or the general public that an organization showed up for the fight. These expressive briefs are perfectly rational, but they tell us more about the politics surrounding a case than about whether the legal questions at its center are weighty. And they are precisely the kind of briefs most likely to pile up in civil rights cases.<\/p>\n<p>So how do we separate the briefs filed to move the law from the briefs filed to signal to donors? Here economics offers a familiar answer: look at what the buyer is actually willing to pay. In my field, the value of an asset is revealed by what people will pay for it, not by what they say about it. The justices \u201cpay\u201d for an amicus brief not with money, but their attention, and ultimately a citation in the opinion. The court is unlikely to cite a brief it found unhelpful, and an expressive brief that breaks no new ground is unlikely to earn a mention. A filer the justices have cited before, by contrast, has a proven track record: the amicus has shown that it can tell the court something worth repeating, which may help decide a significant issue in the case.<\/p>\n<p>That suggests weighting each case\u2019s amici by the reputation of the filers. Although gauging one\u2019s reputation may seem subjective, the way to determine this is actually fairly straightforward. For every organization that files in a case, I counted how often the court cited that filer in its opinions over the previous five terms \u2013 a rolling window, so that credibility earned long ago fades and recent reputation counts for more. I then added up those citation counts across all of a case\u2019s filers. A case crowded with first-time or seldom-cited filers will score low. A case that draws the organizations the justices actually quote scores high. (I will go into the filers themselves in a separate article.)<\/p>\n<p>One filer I set aside: the United States. The solicitor general is cited so much more often than anyone else that including the government would swamp every other signal \u2013 and because the United States is so frequently a party rather than a friend of the court, counting it would turn the measure into a test of whether the government was in the case rather than that case\u2019s importance.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What rises, and what falls<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The tables below show the top five cases per term by amicus reputation, the vote breakdown, and whether the case split along ideological lines (which I discuss later in this article). The final column reports how far each case moved relative to its rank under the raw count \u2013 that is, where that case stood in my previous article when I took only the total number of amicus filings into account.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Supreme Court cases 2024\u201325 term<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>According to this metric, <em>United States v. Skrmetti<\/em>, in which the court considered state bans on certain medical treatments for transgender minors, was last term\u2019s most salient case. <em>Smith &amp; Wesson<\/em>, on whether Mexico was allowed to sue gun manufacturers, came in second. Next was <em>Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton<\/em>, asking if a Texas law requiring age verification for websites that published sexually explicit content violated theFirst Amendment. Fourth was <em>Fuld v. PLO<\/em>, concerning whether the Palestinian Liberation Organization could be sued under the Antiterrorism Act of 1990. And finally was <em>Tiktok v. Garland<\/em>, which considered if the First Amendment blocked a federal law requiring TikTok to divest from Chinese control to operate in the United States.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Supreme Court cases 2023\u201324 term<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With regard to the 2023-24 term, <em>United States v. Rahimi<\/em>, which dealt with whether Second Amendment rights applied to someone with a domestic violence restraining order, topped the list.<em> Loper Bright<\/em> <em>Enterprises v. Raimondo<\/em>, on deference courts give to an executive agency\u2019s interpretation of the law it administers, came next. This was followed by <em>FDA<\/em> <em>v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine <\/em>(on regulatory actions regarding the abortion drug mifepristone); <em>Trump v.<\/em> <em>Anderson<\/em> (on whether a state could remove Donald Trump from the ballet under the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment); and <em>Moody v. Netchoice, LLC<\/em> (on state laws regulating social media).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Supreme Court cases 2022\u201323 term<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Lastly is the 2022-23 term. Here, the lead case was <em>Moore v. Harper<\/em>, which rejected the independent state legislature theory on how much control a state legislature possesses over elections, followed by <em>303 Creative<\/em> <em>LLC v. Elenis <\/em>(on designing websites for same-sex weddings); <em>Gonzalez v. Google LLC <\/em>(on government regulation of speech on social media \u2013 a common theme among the most salient cases); <em>Allen<\/em> <em>v. Milligan <\/em>(on the Voting Rights Act); and <em>Students for Fair Admissions v. President and Fellows of Harvard College<\/em> (on affirmative action in college admissions).<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/americanservicereview.com\/?p=351\">Kagan and Barrett to testify before Congress<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>What this tells us<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Based on the above, two patterns stand out. First, the cases that climb to replace the previous top five are, somewhat strikingly, not civil rights cases. Instead, these were focused on institutional stakes, administrative power, and economic regulation. In the 2022-23 term, <em>Moore v<\/em>.<em> Harper<\/em> rises to first, <em>Allen v<\/em>.<em> Milligan<\/em> climbs from 10th to fourth, and <em>Biden v<\/em>.<em> Nebraska<\/em> \u2013 whether the Biden administration had the power to forgive approximately $430 billion in student loans under a particular statute \u2013 moves up to sixth. In the 2023-24 term, <em>United States v<\/em>.<em> Rahimi<\/em> and <em>Loper Bright Enterprises v<\/em>.<em> Raimondo<\/em>, both previously outside the top five by raw count, jump to first and second. And in the 2024-25 term, <em>Smith &amp; Wesson<\/em> rises to second, <em>Fuld v<\/em>.<em> Palestine Liberation Organization<\/em> to fourth, and <em>TikTok v<\/em>.<em> Garland<\/em> to fifth. Many of these cases did not dominate the news, but they are the cases that draw the filers whose briefs the court takes seriously.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the biggest omission in the top five is <em>Trump v<\/em>.<em> United States<\/em>, the presidential-immunity case I singled out last time as undersold by the raw count, which here climbs from 10th to eighth. But this may be explained by an expedited timeline of 19 days to file a brief compared to the more typical six weeks, which likely reduced the number of filers.<\/p>\n<p>Second is the prevalence (or relative lack thereof) of decisions decided along purely ideological lines. In my original article, the raw count largely cut against the popular narrative that the most important cases all break down along the familiar 6-3 conservative-liberal split. Weighting amicus briefs by reputation barely changes that conclusion. Among the 15 top five cases across the three terms, the number decided along ideological lines edges down only slightly, from six under the raw count to five under the weighted one. According to this measure, 23 of 28 (82%), 17 of 25 (68%), and 23 of 28 (82%) of the most salient cases were not decided along ideological lines. Stripping out the expressive filings, in other words, does not make the court look any more or less partisan. The 6-3 narrative remains real in a handful of marquee cases, but a large majority do not support this.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The current term<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As I did last time, I also took a close look at the most recent term, in which the final opinions were handed down in argued cases last week.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Supreme Court cases 2025\u201326 term<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Trump v. Barbara<\/em>, on the president\u2019s order ending birthright citizenship, and the NRSC\u2019s campaign-finance challenge tied for first. <em>Trump v<\/em>.<em> Slaughter<\/em> (on the independence of federal agencies), <em>Louisiana v. Callais<\/em> (on the Voting Rights Act), and <em>West Virginia v<\/em>. <em>B.P.J.<\/em> (on transgender athletes) rounded out the top five. These cases include two on elections, one on administrative power, and two on civil rights.<\/p>\n<p>The measure is still imperfect. <em>Learning Resources, Inc. v<\/em>.<em> Trump<\/em> \u2013 the challenge to the president\u2019s power to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and by any account one of the most consequential cases of the term \u2013 sits just outside the top five under both the raw and the weighted measures. But, as was the case with <em>Trump v. United States<\/em>, there is good reason for this: Like several recent blockbusters, <em>Learning Resources<\/em> was expedited, giving potential amici far less time than usual to file, which likely led to fewer briefs.<\/p>\n<p>We can also see how many of the cases with high amicus reputation were decided along ideological lines. Three of the top five cases fit the 6-3 narrative, with <em>Trump v<\/em>. <em>Barbara <\/em>and <em>West Virginia v<\/em>. <em>B.P.J.<\/em> being the exceptions. When looking at all the above median cases for amicus reputation, however, 29 of 38 of these (74%) were not decided along ideological lines, very similar to the previous three terms.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Counting amicus briefs is a useful way to spot important cases before they are decided, but not all briefs carry the same information. Weighting each case\u2019s filers by how often the court has actually cited them helps reveal the cases that genuinely matter while shedding some of the noise from briefs filed primarily to make a statement rather than to persuade the justices. The result is a list that leans less on civil-rights flashpoints and more on the quieter questions of procedure, administrative power, and economic regulation that court watchers \u2013 if not the public \u2013 tend to recognize as of profound importance.<\/p>\n<p>Based on this, we can also say that only a third of the very top cases \u2013 and only about a fifth of all above-median cases \u2013 were decided along ideological lines. The image of a court that splits 6-3 on everything that counts is, once again, real in a few high-profile cases and overstated across the docket as a whole. The conservative-liberal divide is certainly not an illusion. But it is far from the full story.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/americanservicereview.com\/?p=348\">The Supreme Court\u2019s disturbing approach to federal spending<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Please note that SCOTUS Outside Opinions constitute the views of outside contributors and do not\u00a0necessarily\u00a0reflect the opinions of SCOTUSblog or its staff. Read more The Supreme Court\u2019s quiet coup In a previous piece for SCOTUSblog, I suggested a somewhat unconventional way to gauge which are the most important Supreme Court cases: simply count the number [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":354,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-scotus-outside-opinions"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Revisiting which Supreme Court cases are actually the most important - American Service Review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/americanservicereview.com\/?p=355\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Revisiting which Supreme Court cases are actually the most important - American Service Review\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Please note that SCOTUS Outside Opinions constitute the views of outside contributors and do not\u00a0necessarily\u00a0reflect the opinions of SCOTUSblog or its staff. 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